Pistons Post Mortem

An Unexpectedly Great Season Begs the Question, Now What?

The Pistons lost their first round series with the New York Knicks. An incredibly hard fought series that easily could be (and maybe should be) heading for a Game 7. I come away from this series feeling incredibly excited for the future of the Detroit Pistons. It's the greatest single season turnaround in NBA history, following up a season marred by injuries, a coach who never seemed to totally know what his players were good at, and a GM who leaned too far into a youth movement that wasn't ready.

It's important to remember that this Pistons team exceeded all possible expectations, winning 44 games with a preseason over/under of 25.5. The 18.5 game divide off their listed over/under being the second biggest miss by oddsmakers, only beaten by your Philadelphia 76ers who came in 26.5 games BELOW their preseason over/under of 50.5 and who had one of those years you'd like to suck out of your brain like Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.* I think it's good to remember these things after a brutal loss in a physical series. Do any Pistons fans think the Knicks are definitely better than the Pistons? I don't. I doubt the players do. If we'd had a healthy Jaden Ivey and Isaiah Stewart does that swing the series? I don't know. But maybe. And that's great! We saw the return of those crazy Detroit crowds to LCA, and the first playoff win since 2008.

I think it's a "TV Talking Point" that teams need to experience the playoffs first in order to win in it later, meaning, it's a thing you say in the C Block of your sports desk talk show because it sounds like it's right. Pop psychology aside, I DO think the Pistons benefitted from playing against a rugged veteran Knicks team that thinks they're title contenders. The 4th Quarter of Game 1 is proof of this. I think it's a good thing to get not only your first home game, but also your first home game win out of the way so that going forward you can act like you've been there, at least a little bit.

But now, in the sobering light of the morning, we must ask ourselves as sports fans, what's next?

*"What do you mean Paul George has a podcast??"

Getting All the Pieces of the Puzzle Onto the Table

My good friend, and the biggest Pistons fan I know, Andrew Norris and I spent about 2 hours this morning dumping all of the puzzle pieces onto the table and attempting to put together what we thought the most pretty picture would be. This will be an attempt to distill those DM's and create a more cohesive narrative and followable thought pattern then our scatter shot Bluesky messages. We can break an offseason plan into a few different major parts, the corners, if you will.

1 Why Did The Pistons Lose? 2 What Fixes That?

3A What's the Cap Look Like? 3B What's the Long Term Projections? 4 What Is Affordable?

5 The Venn Diagram of What's Possible

Let's start with the first on that list, Why Did the Pistons Lose?

The Pistons have a deep roster of young athletic freaks (Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland), a legit star (Cade Cunningham) and some veterans that provide spacing for Cade* (Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris, Dennis Schroder**, Simone Fontecchio***)

*I say this out loud, close my eyes and attempt to do psychic damage to Troy Weaver wherever he is

**I do not know how to make Wix let me do an Umlaut, apologies to Dennis

***If you're nasty

They've also got a really nice role player/sixth man/matchup dependent starter in Isaiah Stewart. He doesn't really fit into any of the other categories but he's an important player to the team.

I think when you look at the Pistons holistically like this it's pretty obvious what they need. A legitimate two way player and second banana to Cade Cunningham. Another guy who can create his own offense in a high pressure situation. Beasley is really not quite that guy even if he was absolutely balling this year, Schroder never was and is on the other side of his career, and Tobias, well, we'll get there. Some people might think that Jaden Ivey could be that guy. I think the idea of him as a legit two way guy, an all star caliber shooting guard to ride next to Cade is a little too optimistic. I think Jaden as your third dude, one of those guys who's 20ish ppg, a good player on a playoff team is more realistic.* There are moments where Jaden looks like he COULD be that elite second guy, but we've never seen it over long periods of time. Haven't really seen it over medium periods of time either. Jalen Duren also projects (in my opinion) as a third guy, I think he was a beast in the back half of the season and really seems to have turned a corner. He will always be slightly limited in a league that DEMANDS shooting but him and Cade are so dangerous on the pick and roll it won't matter as much.

*Like a Rich Man's Malik Monk, Monta Ellis, Jason Terry type player

Tobias Harris was brought in to be a version of this player, and before I put this dude in a zillion trades I want to say that he did a pretty good job defending KAT in the paint and was no doubt an important part of the veteran leadership that turned the locker room around*. He's owed a little over 26 million next year on an expiring contract and was good for 14-6-2 last season in 73 games. To me, this is the most upgradable spot, for the money. He had an absolute stinker in Game 3 and performed a similar disappearing act in many regular season games. I think to the right team, there is some value in bringing in Tobias for one year. He's a good NBA player at the Wing and he's an expiring contract, valuable to some teams. But if you're looking to improve somewhere for the money, it has to at the 4, and that probably means he won't be on the team next year. So, who would be a good replacement?

*Probably

The Stars

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis (whose last name I spelled 100% correct on the first try what's up) is going to get to more or less decide where he wants to go, if he does want to go. I think the Pistons are actually an intriguing option, they have young players that would make sense in a trade, they have picks to trade, and they've got enough talent that you don't have to give away the farm to get him there. The Detroit Pistons are a historic franchise in the most underrated sports town in the country. If Giannis wants to be a Piston, obviously that's what should happen, but he may be more interested in another destination, perhaps a larger market like New York, Brooklyn or Houston.

Kevin Durant

I want to get this one out of the way, because every team that needs a shooting forward is going to be linked with him this offseason. I do not want Kevin Durant or Kevin Durant's contract on my basketball team. I think it's always a drama wherever KD goes, and I think it would basically shut down our ability to resign any of the other players we want to resign. (More on this below) Also, it's like, impossible to trade with the Suns, go ahead, try to plug it into the trade machine, tell me how you make it happen. I do not want KD tweeting at Pistons fans to go outside, I do not want to risk another potentially unhappy KD situation. No thank you.*

*I think KD is a misunderstood dude. I think some people Yearn to Post and it's the Law of Large Numbers that one of those guys would be an awesome NBA player. He's also a Good Poster so I forgive him for a lot of that stuff. I think there's traceable reasons why Phoenix has gone so wrong but I still think you bring a lot of attention when you sign him and I'm not sure that's what we want for this young core.

Lauri Markkanen

In my opinion the best star player that might actually be available for the Pistons. The Utah Jazz haven't been interested in winning games in 3 years and I think that's impacted a lot of the way he's looked at and the amount of games he's played. It's a huge investment, his 4 year 196 million dollar extension kicks in this year and Jazz GM Danny Ainge is going to ask you for Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duran, Ausar Thompson, 4 picks and Lions Season Tickets to open the negotiations. So if you're going this route you're saying, Cade and Lauri are our guys and we think we can win a title with them. Maybe you can, but it's obviously risky. More on this later.

Zion Williamson

Yeah this is what we need, Zion Williamson to come to the Coney Dog capital of the world. I don't trust Zion not to sprain his ankle on the ripped up sidewalks of Woodward Avenue.

Devin Booker

Not a 4 by any stretch of the imagination, but another all star who may be hunting for a new home and who has some legit Detroit ties. Similar to Giannis if Book wants to come to the Pistons then that's what should happen, but similar to KD it's hard to make a deal with Phoenix because their cap is so fucked.

Really Really Good Basketball Players

Michael Porter Jr.

A sweet shooting* true 4 who could definitely be available this offseason for the right price. MPJR always comes with some medical risk but when he's on, is as good a shooter as anybody in the NBA who isn't Steph or Malik Beasley. 18-7-2 this season and a long 6'10" frame, he's the closest thing there is to "Tobias Harris But Better." Here's the rub, he has been The Dog's Breakfast this season in the playoffs and to close out the year. There's also The Jokic Tax. Could he possibly be better NOT playing with the best player in the NBA and best passing big man of all time? Is there an argument that Cade might be the exact player who could power through The Jokic Tax with the way he plays? He is also owed 38 and 40 million years the next year and the year after. Not awful, and not terribly long, but a lot.

*Usually

Naz Reid

A really valuable player right now for the Timberwolves as they once as again will themselves deep into the playoffs. The problem for them? They won't be able to afford him. He has a 15 million dollar player option this season and should command considerably more on the open market, meaning he will opt out and become a free agent. The TWolves will be paying Anthony Edwards 45 million, Rudy Gobert 35 million, Julius Randle 31 million when he opts into his player option, Jaden McDaniels 24 million, and Mike Conley almost 11 million. That's a lot of money to a lot of dudes. Spotrac has Naz Reid as a potential 23 million dollar a year contract meaning he will most likely be elsewhere. He'd be an excellent fit next to Duren, allowing Duren to do what he's best at*, and he has proven playoff toughness, but there will be competition to sign him.

*Go beast mode within 3 feet of either rim

Jabari Smith Jr.

An almost perfect stylistic fit at the 4 for the Pistons, and Jabari is probably in need of a new situation. The Rockets have too many guys, and assuming they don't win a title this year they will be looking to offload 2 or 3 of their rotation guys for a star of some kind (KD is an interesting fit here). Jabari has seen his game take a slight step back this year with Tari Eason playing more minutes in some playoff games. The problem is, what do the Pistons have that the Rockets want? In a lot of ways they're similar rosters filled with young athletic freaks and streaky shooting veterans on short term contracts. It's almost impossible to construct a trade the Rockets would agree to.*

*Do the Rockets really want to absorb Tobias's contract just to play him as a back up wing and then let him go? Do they really want to gamble on Jaden Ivey when they can barely keep Reed Shepperd on the roster?

Desmond Bane and Brandon Clarke

There's a chance that the Grizzlies want to make some changes this off season. I don't think that'll be Ja, I don't think it'll be JJJ. The next two guys on the list would be Desmond Bane and Brandon Clarke. If the Grizz look internally at their failure and decide they need some more veteran leadership while also resetting their timeline a little, maybe a trade core of Ivey and Tobias and a couple picks/swaps make sense to swap for Bane and Brandon Clarke. The problem is Brandon Clarke can't really shoot like you'd need him to if you want to play him with Duren and Bane is on a big long contract. Seems unlikely but we're already 2100 words in so what's a few more.

Sensible Players Who Could Be Available

Tari Eason

Similar to Jabari Smith Jr it's tough to envision what this trade could be, but he'd cost less theoretically than Jabari and that could open up another avenue potentially with a third team.

John Collins

John Collins has been available for trade it seems like since he entered the league. A great offensive power forward but a terrible defensive one. He fills it up from outside but I'm not sure he matches the tough, swaggering physicality ethos the Pistons have succeeded in developing.

PJ Washington

Similar production to Tobias in a slightly more efficient and cheaper package. Washington shot 38% from 3 this year and is owed only 14.5 million next year on an expiring contract. A tough defender, playoff proven* and someone who could be resigned, or not. The Mavs have become The Kings, there's truly no guessing what's next for them or who they might deal. Everyone is available and they may try to shake up their roster significantly in an attempt to win now and bury the headlines from the worst trade maybe in sports history, and they may deem PJ Washington too valuable to be Anthony Davis' back up.

*I think people have already forgotten that he was the 3rd best player on that Mavs team that made the finals

Santi Aldama

Brandon Clarke's Tari Eason, if you've been reading closely you will know what that means. A player who has improved every year but would require another big step to fill in as a crunch time 4 for a team that wants to compete.

Cap Situation

Now that we know what we need and what would work, it's time to take a look at what's possible. All cap numbers are sourced from Spotrac.

Going into next season the Pistons are committed to 127,468,272 dollars in cap spending. The cap maximum for the 25-26 season being 154,647,000 that leaves the Pistons with a little more than 27 million to spend.

Tim Hardaway Jr, Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, Lindy Waters and Paul reed are all unrestricted free agents.

Tim Hardaway is probably somewhere close to 10 million a year? Something like 2 for 20?He'll be hunted by fringe contenders looking for a 3 point shooter to be a bucket off the bench.

I have such little sense of what Beasley's contract will look like. He was a top 4 shooter in the NBA this year, he's spoken publicly about how he wants to stay and asked not to be traded at the deadline. He was so important to what The Pistons did in the back half of their crazy second half run, it's hard to imagine the team without him. He's 29 and in the best basketball situation of his and maybe of anyone's career. He has immense value to the Pistons and they to him, so how does that effect a contract negotiation? I'm gonna say he gets somewhere close to 3 years/60 million.*

*If this ends being not even close to what the actual number is don't come for me. I think this is a really weird contract to value so I'm aiming high because that's what happens in the NBA, guys get more money then you think.

Schroder I think will ask for a multi year contract, maybe the last of his career. He was a maniac in the playoffs and he fits in so well with the almost Cartoon Goon like cast of Pistons role players you almost have to keep him around. His previous contract was 2/25 and i think he trades less per year for stability, call its 3 years 30.

Lindy waters seems to be valued by the Pistons front office. Call it a vet minimum 1 year 2.5 million.

Paul Reed, BBall Paul, had an awesome playoffs. When Stew went down he stepped up. While he's probably only a vet minimum I think you absolutely have to keep that dude around. How can you not?

So who's your casualty? Has to be Tim Hardaway Jr right? You resign Beasley and Schroder, and that's basically your cap space with Cade's max extension kicking in this season. You're betting that Jaden Ivey is a better version of him anyway.

3B - The Long Term Projections

Lots of good youth is a double edged sword in the NBA, because you eventually have to pay them. The NBA cap is not like the NFL cap in that it's not partially imaginative. It will get your ass. You have to stay looking forward in the NBA, the cap and the aprons creep up on you fast. Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey are extension eligible this offseason. There's a lot of questions about Ivey's exact value but I think Duren has tremendous upside and value, he's still only 21.* Both of them will command significant contracts that will require flexibility and an owner willing to pay into the luxury tax aprons. I don't want to get TOO deep into cap minutiae, lets just say it's going to be expensive but we should probably do it. Home grown players have tremendous value within the NBA cap setup. Ausar Thompson, will also be due for an extension, and Ron Holland after that. All of these guys are going to command strong market competitive contracts at their position. That's a lot of young dudes you're looking to pay.

*Duren continues his case as a potential Jayson Tatum Award winner for being way younger than you think

I think the worst thing you can do here is rush it. Get all hyped up about where your roster is at and push your chips to the middle. Maybe the Pistons are one player away. Maybe that one player makes you the Dame Lillard/Cj McCollum Blazers, all dressed up and only one Western Conference finals to go to. You've got a great crop of hungry young dudes that is a few years away from it's peak, so if you want to deal you may not have the ability to do it for a Giannis or a Devin Booker, but you still might be able to improve the roster without mortgaging the future.

Lets observe this graph of the players we mentioned earlier.

*When he is in shape and playing (30ish games a year)

Taking this graph into account, there's some, albeit not much, value to be had this offseason in that Tobias Harris or potentially the Jaden Ivey spot. If we take all of this information into account and spit it back out it brings us to this graph here.

Everything into account, I feel like there are 3 reasonable players to look at this off season that are available, cost the right amount, and fit as an upgrade to the Tobias Harris spot.

Naz Reid

Michael Porter Jr

PJ Washington

So how do we get there?

Fake Trades/Contracts

Naz Reid

This is a little tricky. I think Naz Reid would be maybe the best possible realistic outcome. The problem will be actually getting him. This would require one of two scenarios.

• The Pistons get rid of Tobias for nothing, like 2 second round picks and some goofy contract a team doesn't want.

or

• The Pistons get a huge discount on Beasley, let Schroder walk, no one else who has cap space is interested in him.

I think scenario one is slightly more realistic, if Brooklyn wants to pick up Tobias for free to put some veteran pieces around a top 3 pick and maintain flexibility for a hypothetical Giannis sized acquisition later. Of the teams with the actual cap space to sign a player like Naz Reid the only one who might have interest would be the Charlotte Hornets, but they've got some young bigs they might still want to keep on the floor. Tough to say. That's not like, a premier NBA franchise or "good situation" over there either. Pistons might look pretty good by comparison.*

There's also a world where the TWolves do a weird like, Naz opts into his player option and then they deal him to the Pistons and we rework his deal? I'm not sure how likely that is to happen (my guess would be very unlikely, hard to make that worth Naz and Naz's agent's wild) but it is an option.

*The concern would be if the Spurs decide to go all in on him and think him and Wemby are a back court that competes for Titles for the next decade. I'm not sure I'm sold on that, I think if they go hunting it'll be for bigger game to maximize your chances in this window with Wemby on a rookie contract but they might be able to swing the money and offer a competitive team in a good environment.

Michael Porter Jr

I think if the Nuggets get smoked in the second, they're going to have some thinking to do. After meditating from high upon the mountain I do think they'll decide they need more than 4 other players able to compete in an NBA game alongside Jokic and be in the market for some type of 3 for 1 style deal for Michael Porter Jr, who really eats up a lot of cap for them and like I mentioned, has really dookied in his pants during the playoffs. Also, they're cheap and they don't seem to want to spend into the luxury tax AT ALL despite having the best player in the NBA. Tobias's expiring is very valuable to them, they can sign someone half decent in that spot next offseason.

Pistons Receive: Michael Porter Jr.

2028 Second Round Pick

Nuggets Receive

Tobias Harris

Simone Fontecchio

The Pistons don't give up much because in some ways, we're taking a problem off their hands. I think there's another version of this trade where we receive Julian Strawther as well, and they receive Markus Sasser, giving them a non russ back up ball handler in Sasser and moving them off a bench wing it doesn't seem like they particularly see as a future starter. The biggest question here would be, is this the best possible offer for MPJR?

PJ Washington

I honestly can't believe I ended up here, but this might be the most realistic, actionable, possible play. The trades to get PJ are 3 teamers but I think there's some options here. I also think, because we don't know exactly how the teams off-season's will go, these 3 teamers are subject to several caveats. But here we go.

Trade 1: The Detroit Pistons Receive - PJ Washington, Jaden Hardy

The Dallas Mavericks Receive - Dejounte Murray, Jose Alvarado

The New Orleans Pelicans Receive - Tobias Harris, Klay Thompson, 2 2nd Round Picks

I like this trade for all 3 teams. The Pelicans get off the Dejounte Murray contract, an important first step in their looming roster teardown. The Mavs continue to build the 2019 Avengers, and the Pistons save some cash and get PJ Washington. This might be the only way for the Mavericks and Pelicans to genuinely improve their situation and if I could call Trajon Langdon on the phone this would be my pitch.

Trade 2:

The Detroit Pistons Receive: PJ Washington, Saddiq Bey, Dwight Powell

The Dallas Mavericks Receive - Marcus Smart, Corey Kispert, Kyshawn George

The Wizards Receive - Tobias Harris, Klay Thompson, The Pistons 2027 2nd From Milwaukee, Pistons 2027 2nd Round Pick from Either Brooklyn or Dallas

This trade is a little more convoluted and I think there is some question of how much better this makes the Mavericks (Andrew thinks this makes them worse) but hear me out. I know Marcus Smart looked washed this last season, but much like the Jokic Tax making everyone better, the Wizards Tax sucks the life out of whoever happens to be playing for them. I think Marcus Smart back on a team that wants nothing more than to be a 5 seed, on an expiring contract, brings back some of that two way juice he used to have. Corey Kispert slots right in with their menagerie of wings where he could absolutely end up a starter and Kyshawn George seems like he might end up being...something.* So you bail on a bad contract to get playoff deep, and get rid of a few of your extra big men. The Wizards do this to try to win a few games, and these second round picks could be actually valuable. Milwaukee in 2027 without Giannis hypothetically could be a good 2nd, and so could the Brooklyn/Dallas pick. Second round picks in the top half have legitimate value.** For the Pistons I like this trade because it brings Saddiq home. I don't know what happened with Saddiq the last few years on the Wizards, I think he may be experiencing a heavy Wizards Tax Burden, but he's a legit bench wing and I think he'd fit right in back where he started in Detroit. I think it also gives the Pistons a VERY valuable item, the ability to potentially trade a shooting wing during the season. Every team competing would be interested in trading for Tec at the deadline.

*I don't know exactly what, I'm not going to act like I was actively taking notes on the Wizards bench players this year, I have a girlfriend and a live comedy show on tour right now.

**Some time earlier in the season, Andrew and I charted every draft pick of the last 6-7 years to try to determine what the actual value of an NBA pick is. 2nd round picks have legitimate value under the 40th pick. A lot of good NBA players go between picks 33-45. ***

***Yes, I understand this flies in the face of what I just said about not having time to do certain things

I think people might be bummed to find out the best most realistic course of action is to basically turn Tobias into another 4 who isn't an all star, but the truth is, it's a good thing. The Pistons have so many young players to pay and they jumped so far ahead of their timeline, a tweak here and there is enough to turn this team into a serious team while allowing the necessarily flexibility to keep the core of what you've done. Jaden Ivey COULD be that guy, and if you make your move now, before you know, you can end up on the wrong side of a Richard Hamilton/Jerry Stackhouse trade. Now we wait to see if Ron Holland and Ausar can develop 3 pointers.